ProfitScore Update – January 2025
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: 2025 Market Predictions: Betting on Gains? Bracing for Volatility? I’ve always been fascinated by economic and market forecasts—and equally struck by how often they differ. In 2022, I conducted a personal project where I compared 100 predictions regarding…
ProfitScore Update – December 2024
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore:AI Deception: Powerful Intelligence Issues Recent discoveries about the ChatGPT o1 model have unveiled surprising and thought-provoking behaviors in advanced AI systems. During safety evaluations, the AI exhibited deceptive tendencies, such as bypassing oversight mechanisms, lying and scheming around…
ProfitScore Update – October 2024
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: The Diversification Power of Liquid Alternatives: A Portfolio Perspective In the current investment landscape, diversification has become more critical than ever for achieving consistent, long-term growth. While traditional portfolios, like the classic 60% equities and 40% bonds mix,…
ProfitScore Update – September 2024
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: At ProfitScore, our trading approach is guided by market Regimes. While various factors influence our specific trading decisions, understanding the market’s current state or regime is a key component in how we position our portfolio. Many of you…
ProfitScore Update – August 2024
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: Looking at different indicators used to predict the market is always fascinating. While we at ProfitScore don’t use the Sahm Rule as an indicator, it was interesting enough to share. The Sahm Rule, named after economist Claudia Sahm, is a simple but effective…
ProfitScore Update – June 2024
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: The Bond Bear Market Stocks can trend for years, but interest rates trend for decades. We are four years deep into a bond bear market, and this has caused many advisors to rethink their asset allocation strategy. For…
ProfitScore Update – May 2024
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore:The Buffett Indicator Is Near an All-Time High Warren Buffet is often mentioned as the greatest investor of all time. Berkshire Hathaway, Warren’s investment company, has 189 billion dollars invested in cash equivalents. It’s the largest cash position in…
ProfitScore Update – April 2024
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: The period following the 2008 financial crisis was marked by historically low interest rates, a trend that appears to be reversing in the current economic landscape, suggesting that high interest rates may persist over an extended period. This…
ProfitScore Update – January 2024
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore:See Saw as a Predictor? Last year, we witnessed a significant rebound in the market after a notably challenging period, which had experienced one of its worst years, particularly for a 60/40. This pattern often leads to the assumption…
ProfitScore Update – December 2023
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: Potential Impact of BOJ Policy Shift on US Treasuries and Global Markets We’re closely monitoring a significant development in global finance: the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is showing signs of ending its negative interest-rate policy. This speculation has…
ProfitScore Update – October 2023
Exploring the Impact of Basis Trading in Financial Markets The SEC is about to pass new rules impacting basis trading in US Treasuries. Why should you care? First, let me give you a little background on basis trading. In the complex world of finance, the…
ProfitScore Update – September 2023
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: The Inverse Dance of Equities and VolatilityEquities and volatility, two vital financial metrics, often engage in a rhythmic dance, moving in opposite directions. Here’s a glimpse into their inverse relationship. The Inverse Tango: Historically, when stock prices (equities) rise,…