ProfitScore Update – July 2026
To the friends and clients of ProfitScore- The Chair Doesn’t Run the Fed. The Fed Doesn’t Run the Market. The whole street is playing one game. Read the hawk. Guess Warsh’s next move.Wrong game. He does not run the Fed. And the Fed does not…
ProfitScore Update – July 2025
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: The Fed’s Limited Reach: Why Long-Term Rates Dance to Their Own Beat Most people don’t realize that when the Federal Reserve cuts rates, the long end of the yield curve doesn’t always follow suit. In fact, it often does…
ProfitScore Update – June 2024
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: The Bond Bear Market Stocks can trend for years, but interest rates trend for decades. We are four years deep into a bond bear market, and this has caused many advisors to rethink their asset allocation strategy. For…
ProfitScore Update – April 2024
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: The period following the 2008 financial crisis was marked by historically low interest rates, a trend that appears to be reversing in the current economic landscape, suggesting that high interest rates may persist over an extended period. This…
ProfitScore Update – January 2024
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore:See Saw as a Predictor? Last year, we witnessed a significant rebound in the market after a notably challenging period, which had experienced one of its worst years, particularly for a 60/40. This pattern often leads to the assumption…
ProfitScore Update – June 2023
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: A recent study from the US central bank has set off alarms in the financial sector, signaling a record increase in American businesses under financial distress and the possibility of intensified ramifications from the Federal Reserve’s war on…
ProfitScore Update – January 2023
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: January was a good month for both equities and fixed income. After finishing 2022 down more than -18%, the S&P 500 rebounded in January, posting a positive return of 6.3%. Similarly, the U.S. Agg, being down -13.01% for 2022, bounced…
Demographic Obstacles to Increasing Yields
The ground is littered with dead bodies of investors/traders who have bet on rising US rates/yields. Is this time different? Why is this trade so difficult? It is my very humble opinion that when the history books are written about this time in financial history,…
Why The Unwind Of The Carry Trade Is Increasing Volatility
Central bank interest rates are of fundamental importance to exchange rates and foreign exchange flows as they determine the direction and profitability of carry trades. When the interest rate differential between two central banks is positive, it is generally possible to borrow a currency at…
World War C: Illiquidity is CRUSHING Corporate Debt Markets
Cumulatively the markets are at or near record highs in illiquidity. What makes this collapse so devastating is the breadth of illiquidity across most sectors of the market. The Volcker rules that were passed in 2009 to protect banks had unintended consequences. Banks stopped making markets in…