ProfitScore Update – July 2026
To the friends and clients of ProfitScore- The Chair Doesn’t Run the Fed. The Fed Doesn’t Run the Market. The whole street is playing one game. Read the hawk. Guess Warsh’s next move.Wrong game. He does not run the Fed. And the Fed does not…
ProfitScore Update – June 2026
To the friends and clients of ProfitScore- For twenty years, the 60/40 ran on autopilot. Stocks fell, bonds rose, the losses got cushioned. Everybody slept fine. Then came 2022. The S&P dropped 18.1%. The Bond Agg dropped 13.0%, its worst year on record. The 60/40 fell about 17%, its worst showing since…
ProfitScore Update – July 2025
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: The Fed’s Limited Reach: Why Long-Term Rates Dance to Their Own Beat Most people don’t realize that when the Federal Reserve cuts rates, the long end of the yield curve doesn’t always follow suit. In fact, it often does…
ProfitScore Update – June 2024
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: The Bond Bear Market Stocks can trend for years, but interest rates trend for decades. We are four years deep into a bond bear market, and this has caused many advisors to rethink their asset allocation strategy. For…
ProfitScore Update – January 2024
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore:See Saw as a Predictor? Last year, we witnessed a significant rebound in the market after a notably challenging period, which had experienced one of its worst years, particularly for a 60/40. This pattern often leads to the assumption…
ProfitScore Update – December 2023
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: Potential Impact of BOJ Policy Shift on US Treasuries and Global Markets We’re closely monitoring a significant development in global finance: the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is showing signs of ending its negative interest-rate policy. This speculation has…
ProfitScore Update – October 2023
Exploring the Impact of Basis Trading in Financial Markets The SEC is about to pass new rules impacting basis trading in US Treasuries. Why should you care? First, let me give you a little background on basis trading. In the complex world of finance, the…
ProfitScore Update – October 2022
Inflation Adjusted Equity/Bonds To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: With all the talk of inflation, there is one element that you don’t see much. The S&P is down -17.75% through October, but adjusting for inflation puts the S&P down -23.05%. For reference, the S&P…
ProfitScore Update – January 2022
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: The expectation of heightened volatility for 2022 did not disappoint in January. The VIX rose to just short of 32 in late January, its highest level since January 2021, settling at 24.38 by month’s end. According to weekly data published…
ProfitScore Update – November 2021
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: Our flight-to-quality indicator had been building towards the end of November and went long on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. This trade can last for a few days or several weeks. It can also chop around depending on the…