ProfitScore Update – October 2023
Exploring the Impact of Basis Trading in Financial Markets The SEC is about to pass new rules impacting basis trading in US Treasuries. Why should you care? First, let me give you a little background on basis trading. In the complex world of finance, the…
ProfitScore Update – October 2022
Inflation Adjusted Equity/Bonds To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: With all the talk of inflation, there is one element that you don’t see much. The S&P is down -17.75% through October, but adjusting for inflation puts the S&P down -23.05%. For reference, the S&P…
ProfitScore Update – January 2022
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: The expectation of heightened volatility for 2022 did not disappoint in January. The VIX rose to just short of 32 in late January, its highest level since January 2021, settling at 24.38 by month’s end. According to weekly data published…
ProfitScore Update – November 2021
To the clients and friends of ProfitScore: Our flight-to-quality indicator had been building towards the end of November and went long on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. This trade can last for a few days or several weeks. It can also chop around depending on the…
The Currently Odd Volatility of Long-term US Treasuries
The US sovereign bond market is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven by investors. When US equity markets are under stress, investors generally purchase US Treasury bonds, pushing yields lower and bonds higher. Traders seeking convexity prefer buying the long-end of the yield curve, which causes the…
World War C: Will Rising U.S. Deficits Steepen The Yield Curve?
Estimated Deficit Spending for 2021 Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) – Version 1.0 The U.S. Dollar Stays Strong Drowning Out The Noise What Opening Up May Look Like The economic toll, as measured by deficit spending, is going to set new records across most modern economies. Even…
Why The Unwind Of The Carry Trade Is Increasing Volatility
Central bank interest rates are of fundamental importance to exchange rates and foreign exchange flows as they determine the direction and profitability of carry trades. When the interest rate differential between two central banks is positive, it is generally possible to borrow a currency at…
World War C: Illiquidity is CRUSHING Corporate Debt Markets
Cumulatively the markets are at or near record highs in illiquidity. What makes this collapse so devastating is the breadth of illiquidity across most sectors of the market. The Volcker rules that were passed in 2009 to protect banks had unintended consequences. Banks stopped making markets in…
World War C Continues: Quick Update On The Fed’s Battle Lines
The long end of the yield curve, as measured by the TLT ETF, experienced a -9.8% intraday peak-to-valley drawdown on Wednesday. The TLT finally bottomed at 2:40 est. This was the exact time of the Fed’s last auction where it began purchasing 30-year US Treasuries. This auction was unscheduled…
The Treasury Market Broke Last Week
The $18 trillion US Treasury market broke last week! As of today, no one knows for sure all of the reasons for its collapse, but everyone agrees it is a severe problem. One of the main culprits seems to be caused by the pricing of…